Updated Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings (Week 5) (2024)

Updated Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings (Week 5) (1)

Welcome to the middle of May, where all of those small-sample thoughts start to turn into "well, it's been a month" trends as we gaze once more into my weekly-updated top-101 starting pitcher rankings - looking at rest-of-season values. RotoBallers can once again peruse my notes regarding key movers and then scroll through the top-101 in a table with tiers, ranks, earned value via Fangraphs, and even more notes! Let's hit another edition of my weekly Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks!

This google sheetaccompanies the table below and adds relevant 5x5 stats, K%, BB%, BABIP, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, ERA-FIP, and CSW% from 2022. Do note that I leave off injured players, but for now, I will include them at the bottom with a rank of where they'd appear when healthy. I highly encourage you to click the link.CLICK IT!

As is tradition, these fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings are geared toward traditional 5x5 leagues and focus on healthy players. If 25% of the board is on the IL, then that doesn't help anyone. Let's jump right into the week's top-101 SP!

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Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis

-Brandon Woodruff is testing your patience early, I know. His curveball is getting smoked, his heater isn’t putting as many hitters away, and his effectiveness has waved in the process. Consider that last year his curve had a .140 batting average against (.184 xBA, .277 xSLG), and that’s come out in ‘22 with a .571 average against (.450 xBA, .994 xSLG). You can scoff at the small sample size given only seven batted-ball events on the curve in ‘22, but the one home run allowed here matches the total across 64 BBE and 468 curves thrown in ‘21. The two doubles in ‘22 are already half of the amount from ‘21. The spin rate is down roughly 100 rpm, so perhaps he needs to hit the workshop with the hook. I’ll be keeping my eyes on that pitch specifically moving forward.

-Shane Bieber is still experiencing a drop in velocity, averaging only 90.6 mph on his four-seamer after sitting 93-94 in 2018-20 before last year’s injury. And within 2022’s alarming window, it hit new lows in his most recent start. On May 7, Bieber’s average fastball velocity was 89.9 mph and his other pitches also dropped in tandem. Toronto punished him for it, tagging him for seven runs on eight hits and three walks across 3 ⅓ IP. The biggest yikes is that he logged zero strikeouts. He needs to rebound on May 13 at Minnesota or else an IL stint feels inevitable.

-Michael Kopech provides us with some positivity, as the youngster worked around poor defense to ride six innings without an earned run in what should’ve been his first win of 2022. Alas, the White Sox would blow the game and lose 12-9 in dramatic fashion, but that doesn’t erase Kopech lowering his ERA to 0.93 and his WHIP to 0.97 on the night. I am a happy clam regarding Kopech, but we must acknowledge that his low .214 BABIP is tied to a fly-ball approach (52.9%). That’s all well and good (unless the fly is hit to a subpar outfielder) except it doesn’t mesh with that 0.00 HR/9 holding up. The ball won’t stay dead forever! Not that you’re expecting a sub-1.00 ERA, and he does carry a 2.46 FIP thus far, but don’t be shocked at a few speed bumps in the near future.

-Luis Castillo made his 2022 debut on Monday and held Milwaukee scoreless through three innings until a two-RBI double from future NL MVP Rowdy Tellez. He would also surrender a home run to Omar Narvaez in the fifth for an overall line of 4 ⅔ IP: 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K on 87 pitches. And now we must wonder how much of his fastball velocity hovering around 95 mph is general rust versus a long-term issue tied to the shoulder injury. His fastball and sinker usually clock in around 97 mph from 2021 data and we’ll want to see that moving forward. The same can be said for Mike Clevinger, who averaged 93.5 after being a 95-mph guy before TJS. This is not meant to be a panic button, merely raising the point that you need to monitor this.

-George Kirby is not Matt Brash, so don’t go viewing him the same just because they’re both young arms on the Mariners. Brash has incredible movement but an inconsistent command of the arsenal, while Kirby threw 59% four-seamers in his debut, leaning on his slider 25% of the time to mix things up. He also has a changeup (10%) and a curveball in the back pocket, but the fastball-slider combo does the heavy lifting. Also note that 38-of-48 fastballs went against lefties and were responsible for six of his seven strikeouts, while the slider is used more against right-handed bats. The 24-year-old had a 1.82 ERA/0.89 WHIP with 32 strikeouts in 24 ⅔ IP at Double-A this year prior to the call-up and is worth an add in all formats.

-Josh Winder is another intriguing young arm that I’m fortunate enough to have on a few Draft Champions squads. His development was slowed by a right shoulder impingement in late 2021 but he’s made the most of an early opportunity in the bigs via injuries to Sonny Gray and now Chris Paddack. Winder’s enjoyed some good luck (.182 BABIP) but has carried over a track record of plus control in the minors to the majors. If the walk rate stays near 5%, then even some normal batted-ball luck shouldn’t be a backbreaker. With a slider-first approach that he can command, give Winder a long look in deeper formats.

**Max Meyer better get called up soon to take Elieser Hernandez's rotation slot, even though it'll probably go to Edward Cabrera first. Alas, we hold out hope.Grayson Rodriguez too, while we're at it.

Top-101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball

These are rest-of-season fantasy baseball rankings for starting pitchers.

(+/-)TierPlayerRankEV$$PVTrendNotes
01Corbin Burnes1$6.444.044.00.0 ▬
01Max Scherzer2$6.442.042.00.0 ▬
01Gerrit Cole3$3.842.042.00.0 ▬
12Walker Buehler4$6.739.038.50.5 ▲
32Lucas Giolito5$2.137.533.04.5 ▲
02Julio Urias6$3.934.034.00.0 ▬
-32Brandon Woodruff7$3.633.539.0-5.5 ▼Peripherals still steady, curve looks shaky
22Joe Musgrove8$9.830.029.50.5 ▲
22Carlos Rodon9$13.330.029.50.5 ▲
22Kevin Gausman10$17.529.528.01.5 ▲
-42Freddy Peralta11$5.328.533.5-5.0 ▼
43Clayton Kershaw12$8.127.523.04.5 ▲
43Justin Verlander13$5.426.522.04.5 ▲Yet another no-hit bid, ho-hum
43Shane McClanahan14$4.525.521.54.0 ▲
03Dylan Cease15$9.825.524.51.0 ▲
33Max Fried16$8.424.021.03.0 ▲
33Alek Manoah17$5.422.021.01.0 ▲
34Zack Wheeler18$4.522.021.50.5 ▲COVID-IL after 2 scoreless starts
-54Sandy Alcantara19$3.222.025.5-3.5 ▼
-74Logan Webb20$6.721.527.5-6.0 ▼
74Shohei Ohtani21$8.921.515.06.5 ▲1.52 FIP, 1.54 xFIP, 1.82 SIERA
-134Shane Bieber22$4.020.030.0-10.0 ▼Help, my velo's fallen and I can't get up
-14Nathan Eovaldi23$0.919.019.00.0 ▬
24Aaron Nola24$3.518.017.01.0 ▲
44Pablo Lopez25$9.617.514.03.5 ▲
-14Frankie Montas26$5.717.017.00.0 ▬
04Chris Bassitt27$5.416.516.00.5 ▲
-44Yu Darvish28$3.216.518.0-1.5 ▼
-64Robbie Ray29$2.516.018.5-2.5 ▼Saw a bit of the 96-mph stuff Tuesday
04Logan Gilbert30$5.814.513.51.0 ▲
25Michael Kopech31$7.314.013.01.0 ▲
05Sean Manaea32$4.413.513.00.5 ▲
-25Jose Berrios33-$0.713.013.5-0.5 ▼Nowhere near must-start
05Charlie Morton34-$0.913.013.00.0 ▬
06Zac Gallen38$8.112.510.02.5 ▲
05Trevor Rogers35$1.912.012.5-0.5 ▼
05Kyle Wright36$8.311.011.00.0 ▬BOS tagged him early but he battled
06Tylor Megill37$7.810.510.50.0 ▬
-26Nestor Cortes43$8.010.59.51.0 ▲
N/A6Luis Castillo39-$0.110.0INJN/AVelo down in return, rust or long-term?
N/A6Sonny Gray40$0.59.5INJN/A4 IP, 0 ER, 7/2 K/BB in return
-16Joe Ryan44$5.19.09.00.0 ▬
-26Framber Valdez41$3.79.010.0-1.0 ▼
-26Jesus Luzardo42$3.69.09.5-0.5 ▼
-36Jordan Montgomery45$4.79.09.00.0 ▬Steadily good, but not unlocking next level
-27Luis Garcia46$2.48.58.50.0 ▬7 IP, 1 ER, 9 K in latest, 2 straight QS
-27Carlos Carrasco47$5.58.07.50.5 ▲Looking sharp, plus outings in 5 of 6
-27Alex Cobb48$3.28.07.01.0 ▲Fluky May 1 start; 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 K more like it
-27Garrett Whitlock49$5.98.07.01.0 ▲
N/A7Mike Clevinger50$0.87.0INJN/A4/1 K/BB in 4 2/3 IP in return, good enough
-37Patrick Sandoval51$6.47.07.00.0 ▬
N/A7George Kirby74$2.57.0N/AN/A
-37Tyler Mahle52$5.16.56.50.0 ▬Needed PIT matchup to rebound, gets them again
-17Alex Wood53$0.85.55.50.0 ▬
-17Luis Severino54$2.25.55.50.0 ▬
-17MacKenzie Gore55$5.65.55.50.0 ▬
0.07Tarik Skubal56$7.55.55.00.5 ▲
-27Noah Syndergaard57$4.85.05.00.0 ▬
18Eduardo Rodriguez58$3.64.54.50.0 ▬Season-best 8 Ks, 3 QS in last 4
-28Adam Wainwright59$3.74.54.50.0 ▬COVID-IL
08Triston McKenzie60$6.34.54.50.0 ▬
08Merrill Kelly61$9.94.54.50.0 ▬Pitching over his head a bit, 2.05 FIP though!
58Eric Lauer62$5.64.03.50.5 ▲Passed ATL test w/ 8/3 K/BB in 6 1/3 IP
-29Jameson Taillon66$4.23.54.0-0.5 ▼
-29Tony Gonsolin67$3.03.53.50.0 ▬
-29Drew Rasmussen68$4.73.53.50.0 ▬
-19Ranger Suarez69$1.13.53.50.0 ▬Blanked SEA over 6 IP, LAD test next
-129Marcus Stroman70$1.73.54.5-1.0 ▼COVID-IL
-29Reid Detmers71$1.03.03.5-0.5 ▼
09Kyle Gibson72$4.13.03.00.0 ▬
69Paul Blackburn73$8.03.02.50.5 ▲
-69Cristian Javier76$3.33.03.5-0.5 ▼
-138Ian Anderson63-$0.52.56.0-3.5 ▼
-28Jose Urquidy64$1.52.54.0-1.5 ▼
N/A8Jon Gray65$0.72.5INJN/AKnee sprain, hoping to be minor and back shortly
-248Tanner Houck75$2.42.56.0-3.5 ▼Ceiling remains high but command absent
-1410Hunter Greene77-$5.02.54.0-1.5 ▼
-710Cal Quantrill78$2.22.53.0-0.5 ▼
-610Josiah Gray79$1.12.53.0-0.5 ▼
-510Kyle Hendricks80$1.72.02.5-0.5 ▼Enigmatic; 2 gems, 4 clunkers. ARI next
-510Steven Matz81$2.02.02.5-0.5 ▼
-510Michael Lorenzen82$1.02.02.5-0.5 ▼
-310Zach Eflin83$5.41.52.0-0.5 ▼COVID-IL
-310Taijuan Walker84-$0.81.52.0-0.5 ▼
-210Yusei Kikuchi85-$1.61.51.50.0 ▬
N/A10Hyun Jin Ryu86-$0.91.5N/AN/ASlated to return May 14 v. TB
310Bruce Zimmermann87$8.21.51.50.0 ▬
N/A10Jordan Hicks90-$0.11.5N/AN/A
N/A10Josh Winder93$4.51.5N/AN/APaddack injury keeps door open
N/A10Spencer Strider96$2.71.5N/AN/A
N/A10Chad Kuhl88$4.81.5N/AN/A
N/A11Jakob Junis89$2.21.5N/AN/A
-311Glenn Otto91$0.31.51.50.0 ▬
-311Aaron Ashby92$0.51.01.5-0.5 ▼
N/A11Jake Odorizzi94$4.11.0N/AN/A3 straight Ws since 4/20 implosion, 1 ER in 17 2/3 IP
N/A11Kyle Bradish95-$0.31.0N/AN/A
-411Michael Pineda97$0.01.01.00.0 ▬
-111Tyler Anderson98$3.71.01.00.0 ▬
-312Miles Mikolas99$5.71.01.00.0 ▬
-212Brad Keller100$4.01.01.00.0 ▬
-212Corey Kluber101$4.51.01.00.0 ▬B2B strong QS, then obliterated by LAA

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Updated Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings (Week 5) (2024)

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